America - what can Europe expect after November 5, 2024?

Introduction

I realize that I have been very privileged as a child. My father worked for KLM. That says enough in itself. But for those who would like some more context; someone working for KLM enjoys pleasant employment conditions. The most significant and striking, of course, is the almost-free ability to fly with the "Flying Dutchman" - and this applies to the employee, their spouse, and, if present, their own children. With this ISA (If Seat Available) arrangement for KLM employees, my father, mother, and I flew for the first time to Boston on the East Coast of America in 1965 (I was three at the time).

Many of my uncles and aunts made the leap to the land of unlimited possibilities, resulting in me seeing a lot at a young age of both the East and West coasts and Canada.

The combination of my father as a KLM employee and all those uncles and aunts in America made America sort of my second home. I loved the country, the culture, the space and nature, the warm summers, the big cars, McDonald's (even then).

For years, I also thought that if I ever were to emigrate, it would "definitely" be America. From a young child to a teenager, uninhibited by any knowledge of what America truly was, this country seemed to embody everything that bordered on ideal for me.

New insights and interests

That ideal image gradually began to shift as I got older; from an ideal vacation destination to a country with enormous contrasts - and that's a polite way to put it.

Some obvious contrasts were/are:

East and West Coast vs. the Heartland, North vs. South, Democrats vs. Republicans, White vs. African-American, Hispanic, Asian-American, Mega-rich vs. the rest of Americans, Poverty vs. Wealth, Opportunities vs. Hopelessness, Real Economy vs. Financial Economy, Believers vs. Nonbelievers, Old Industry vs. New Tech, Right to bear arms vs. Banning of guns - to name a few.

A contrast that I have not mentioned yet and which this piece actually wants to shed light on is conservative vs. liberal. Both trends are often linked to either Republican (conservative) or

Democratic (liberal), but a Democrat can also have conservative views and vice versa.

Regardless of the blue or red color, being conservative or liberal is much more about culturally determined norms and values than a political direction or conviction.

Interestingly, around 2009, a group of right-wing conservatives, driven by dissatisfaction with the Obama administration, the events and consequences of 9/11, and their own views, norms, and values, gained momentum. This "Tea Party" at the time was the incarnation of American populism. For clarification; in addition to the Tea Party, there has been/is also a minority group of ultra-right or extreme right (perhaps the best-known being the Ku Klux Klan) in America. Although the demographic profiles of members of the extreme right and the Tea Party are similar in some respects, there is still much that divides the two movements ideologically. Since the mid-1990s, white supremacy and anti-government extremism have been the two main segments of American extremism, each encompassing multiple movements of its own. Extreme right-wing also includes various movements focusing on one issue. An example of this is anti-abortion extremism.

Presidential elections in November

The above information brings me to the crux of my argument. Anyone who follows the American media even slightly cannot have missed the fact that there are only two presidential candidates left: incumbent President Joe Biden for the Democrats and former President Donald Trump for the Republicans. The primaries have already determined this - no other candidate from either side of the political spectrum has emerged or is still in the race. Remarkable in this phase is that Donald Trump very clearly and unconventionally takes a stand on how he will shape his presidency if elected. His most striking public statement says it all: “I want to be a dictator for one day”. Furthermore, his rhetoric suggests that he wants to control the federal government and all its institutions by dismissing "defectors" and replacing them with loyal followers of his vision. Left-wing media will be silenced under his presidency so that right-wing media becomes the mouthpiece of what he wants the people to hear and see. This vision shows an autocratic president who seizes all power. A direct consequence of this vision is that it could mean the end of the 394-year-old American democracy.

Supporters

Trump presents himself as a right-wing populist; thereby appealing to like-minded, predominantly white right-wing conservatives who mostly live in the heartland of America. This group of workingclass Americans has little to no confidence in the government in Washington. Trump cleverly plays into this by making promises that this group wants to hear. Under the campaign slogan Make America Great Again (MAGA) - originally first used by Ronald Reagan in 1980 - supporters feel heard and strengthened. Due to the success of this campaign slogan, MAGA begins to transform into a "movement" with right-wing conservative ideals. It will be this group of angry and/or disappointed MAGA supporters who can vote Trump into the White House.

Trump and the rest of the world

Donald Trump doesn't hide the fact that he is a great admirer of men like Vladimir Putin (RUS), Xi Jinping (CHI), Victor Orban (HUN), and Kim Jung Un (NKOR). What these men have in common? They are totalitarian autocrats with a firm grip on power in their countries.

At the same time, Trump has a disdain for Europe and particularly NATO. In his vision, he withdraws from NATO and Europe must fend for itself if a NATO member is attacked as described in Article 5 of the treaty: An attack on one member state is an attack on all member states. Article 5 is the most important agreement in the so-called North Atlantic Treaty, the agreement that forms the basis of NATO. If one NATO member is attacked, all members will support the country militarily. So the attacked country is not alone. Such an attack does not have to be with tanks and guns, but can also be a cyber attack.

The irony of the story is that NATO has only executed Article 5 once in its entire existence since 1949, namely after the events of 9/11 in New York.

What can Europe expect after November 5?

If Trump is re-elected President of America and he executes what he has announced, then Europe should prepare for a long period of "standing on its own two feet." A repetition of events as was the case during Trumps first term as President. From the Make America Great Again philosophy, relations with Europe will change or become tense. This could mean that military defense within all countries of Europe is obligated to get their affairs in order and that at the European level, a closer look is taken at the functioning of NATO without American support.

Russia will watch all of this closely - Putin's desire to revive the Soviet Union becomes more realistic than ever with a weaker Europe. Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are direct neighbors and relatively easy prey for dominant Russia. Poland, too, may face provocations. But the big question is what NATO will do if the aforementioned 4 NATO countries are provoked.

Indeed, an attack on one is an attack on all. Is the deterrent effect of NATO strong enough without dominant America behind it? These are questions that the leaders of the European Union and the NATO board must answer. The war in Ukraine has proven that Russia (read: Putin) is belligerent and seizes every opportunity to conquer more.

In conclusion, Europe is as strong as it can be. For decades, we have felt secure with NATO backed by America. Europe was able to recover after World War II (Marshall Plan) and invest in a stable and social Europe characterized by peace in the post-war period. We willingly entrusted security and protection to America (both in people and in resources). In Europe, we need to prepare for the possibility that our big brother will not come to our aid after the inauguration of President Trump if he becomes president and is not sentenced to prison prior to his inauguration (*).

(*) there are 91 lawsuits against him